Smoking Securities

Half Baked High Finance

Who Is Antal E. Fekete?

with 2 comments

Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!” screams the headline of a Doomsday piece by a fellow I’ve never heard of. Antal E. Fekete, a professor of something in Canadia, has noticed that the future price of gold is lower than the spot price. He has concluded that there is as SHORTAGE of gold, and that we must BUY.

I’m an idiot, so anything you glean here is entirely suspect. Nevertheless, I’m gonna go out on the limb and note the obvious. One, Antal E. Fekete is an anagram for “neet fake tale,” and two, it is better to bet against his advice by holding dollars (for now).

Proposition one needs little explanation. Like the current backwardation of gold, it is a fact of nature. Part two is a little trickier, so I’m gonna keep it brief. Behold, the relationship between the price of Gold and the US Dollar.

Nothing in the past 3 months indicate that the the dollar is falling relative to Gold. I’m suffering recency bias, but you can only trade what you see. Moreover, futures trading below spot indicates a SURPLUS of contracts as miners sell the rights to their product. Nevertheless, the possibility that the CONTRACTS are worthless still looms, and thus the allure of holding physical gold technically remains, right?

No. Gold will also be absolutely worthless when the shit hits the fan. You can’t eat, drink, smoke, touch or fuck it. It sure is shiny, and other people want it, but if global commerce ceases to exist, your gold won’t buy shit if there is NOTHING. Everyone holding gold is a speculator as it no longer serves as a currency, we have electronic 1’s and 0’s for that.

Personally, if things really get out of hand, I will do as my country does and sell weapons to a neighbor for US Dollars (or Amero’s). Seriously, I’m looking into a Federal Firearms License, and clearly it’s easier to run from crying mothers with a fist full of Franklin’s than bags of gold bullion.

To Mr. Fekete (if that is your real name), I hope you are egregiously long gold, 100% correct, and subsequently capable of bailing me out when I’m wrong. If it turns out that your kindred are selling gold and spreading malicious rumors, you are a genius, and because America is great, you will be tried by no one but yourself.

Finally, in defense of my straw man Antal, I quote him thus, “a man-made risk is not a valid matter for speculation; only speculation on risks caused by Nature is valid.” If you believe that, you should avoid trading in the markets and shun human contact. The distinction between man-made risk and Nature’s nebulous, so indiscernible, it may not exist.

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Written by chucklesamadeus

December 6, 2008 at 4:48 am

2 Responses

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  1. Great, heh, heh!

    Alex

    December 8, 2008 at 3:43 am

  2. Fucking funny…but you should own gold…

    richard

    December 27, 2008 at 12:32 pm


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