Smoking Securities

Half Baked High Finance

Ratios to Reason

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There is evidence of new trends emerging in the market.
US bonds look ready to head lower relative to their foreign counterparts. Will another cycle of credit shock prevent this trend?
Although the SPX indicator remains bullish, the NASDAQ is now bearish for the first time since the end of November. This implies an environment of increased volatility with a lower percentage of stocks trading above their 50dma.
The spread between the SPX buy write and its underlying is currently bearish because it is rising. Moreover, the 10sma is beginning to flatten, so a break of recent resistance would be even more bearish.
The Yen is rising against the USD and that doesn’t bode well for equities. Perhaps it will retest the recent highs before the BOJ acts again.
Treasuries are technically in a downtrend relative to gold, and that puts the dollar in jeopardy. Perhaps another round of credit crisis will bring money back to the ol’ U.S. of A.

The market looks poised to break lower, but there isn’t enough cause for alarm to run to the exits yet. Increasing volatility is certainly a bearish symptom, and considering the massive run up since the November lows, a move lower is quite reasonable. The numbers being released Friday are utterly meaningless, but the reaction will be critical.

On a side note, it’s good to be back online with a working computer. Although the imbeciles at Office Depot raped my face and charged 100+ clams for an AC power adapter, I will have the last laugh; their awesome 14 day return policy is effectively a free rental. Now that I’ve bought another on Buy.com for 29.99, maybe I’ll swallow the power chord and floss my intestinal tract before returning this P.O.S. adapter to the Office Despots.

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Written by chucklesamadeus

January 8, 2009 at 7:43 pm

Posted in BNDGLB, BNDUS, BPCOMQ, BXM, FXY, Gold, SPX, USB, UUP, VXN

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