Smoking Securities

Half Baked High Finance

Rally Shmally

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Call me a complacent bear, but I think the market has an ass kicking in store for the bulls.
Yes, that’s a new low for the banking index. Yes, there may be a major pop due to government shenanigans. Yes, it will probably be a fantastic shorting opportunity.
Stocks on the NYSE are increasingly volatile and less bullish, so until I see some X’s here, I’m selling the rips.
If banks can plumb new depths, why not housing? This too looks ripe for bear raping rally, but in the end, this too will fall.
Here is the real bearish smoking gun. The NASI has made a new O, and the floor is a long way down from here. Grab your parachutes!
Bonds failed to rally with the rest of the market, and I trust debt traders more than the equity schmoes. A Treasury sell off will be a huge tell for a sustained market rally.

Despite my bearish leanings, I’m actually long a smidgen of URE. I successfully shorted it towards the end of the day, but over covered my position, and didn’t realize this till after the close.

Tomorrow will be a big day, and with the VIX floating around 50, I imagine the swings will be crazy. According to my indicators, the environment still favors cash and short term trading, so there is no need to rush into new long term investments.

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Written by chucklesamadeus

January 15, 2009 at 9:07 pm

Posted in BKX, BPNYA, HGX, NASI, USD, UST30Y, VIX

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