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Archive for the ‘SPXA50R’ Category

S&P 500 Bullidex ($ES_F $SPY $SPX)

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SPXA50RVIX090602The number of stocks trading above the 50dma is rising relative to volatility, which is more evidence of a strengthening uptrend. The odds for successful investment are increasing because the probability of purchasing a strong stock with less risk is growing.

According to this chart, the S&P 500 stands at pre-Lehman failure levels, the green 6 (June) in 09 is on the same level as the red 9 (September) in 08. The SPY trading at 95 still remains below its September 2008 price of 125, so there is ample room to run.

Bears are getting cooked in this heat, so expect further deliciousness despite the economic tragedies emanating from your infobox.


Written by chucklesamadeus

June 2, 2009 at 3:16 pm

S&P 500 Bullidex ($ES_F $SPY $SPX)

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This post is graphic heavy but the message is clear, increased shorting and liquidity are the modi operandi.

Until these charts begin to print X’s, the S&P 500 is not a safe investment.

Volatility is increasing relative to the number of strong performing stocks, reducing the odds of successful investment as market breadth wanes unfavorably. The number of stocks at highs is falling as less stocks rise and fewer trade above the 50dma. Raising cash and shorting leveraged ETFs like FAS is a sound approach in the coming week.

Written by chucklesamadeus

May 24, 2009 at 2:58 pm

Market Glance

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The 5 least correlated positive return ETFs show numerous markets cracking critical support and making new lows.

S&P 500 indicators are bearish across the board.

The market remains fahklempt, buyers beware.  The only positive things I see are emerging markets holding above the November lows, and Treasuries failing to make new highs, despite ominous news from every channel on the planet.

I’ve avoided stress by staying in cash, day trading and acquiring a girlfriend.  Cash remains king, and while there are remarkable intraday opportunities, my focus is elsewhere.  To paraphrase Han Solo, “what good is money if you ain’t around to spend it?”

Written by chucklesamadeus

March 4, 2009 at 1:16 am


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Signs of Recovery

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Despite the media frenzy over high unemployment and other worrisome economic headlines, there are signs the global markets are stabilizing, and that risk taking is increasing.  I have a shit ton of charts to prove this point, way too many for the average Joe, so I’ve narrowed it down to 5 for this post.  If you find yourself confused and you cannot make heads or tails of the X’s and O’s, please bear with me as I am still working on a user guide to my charting method.  Without further ado, let’s get to the numbers.


NASDAQ Bullish % Index : NASDAQ Volatility Index

Unlike its sibling chart BPSPX:VIX, the NASDAQ “Bullidex” (Copyright Trademark Patent Pending) is beginning to show signs of strength, though the new “2” on the far right representing February obfuscates the fresh X.  This signifies an increasing number of NASDAQ stocks in bullish formations amidst declining volatility, though the indicator remains in dangerously bearish territory.  So long as this trend continues, the market will favor bets on the long side, but since daily swings remain violent, I’m still using cautious position sizes.

Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets have entered a new uptrend, which bodes well for the market in general.  Since this asset class is considered high risk, it is good to see interest in this sector.



The Yen carry trade may be resuming as people sell low yield Yen to acquire the badly beaten AUD.  This is an excellent sign of reflation, so keep an eye on this.

SPX Volatility Index

% of SPX Stocks Above the 50 DMA : SPX Volatility Index

SPX stocks trading above the 50 DMA are increasing with relatively lower volatility.  This is the first sign of a bullish trend in the SPX, but stay cautious as there are other red flags in the sector.


30 Year US Treasury Bond Price : Gold

Treasuries have had a remarkably steep sell off relative to gold, and this suggests an end to the credit crisis that plagued investments in 2008.  Look for further weakness in the Treasury market as people move from “risk free” yield to assets with greater potential for price appreciation in the changing environment.

The specter of deflation is being replaced by an inflationary trade.  Precious metals seem to be fairing the best, and gold miners are not far behind.  Stay flexible, and don’t pay attention to the headlines that espouse the impending doom of the U.S. financial system.

Written by chucklesamadeus

February 9, 2009 at 6:14 am


Ratios to Reason $SPX

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A weekly look at 5 indicators that depict the current market environment.
$BPSPX:$VIX = 97.31
$BXM:$SPX = 70.22
$SPXA50R:$VIX = 87.58

The only glimmer of bullish hope my indicators offer is a 50% increase in the $SPXHILO:$VIX since my last analysis here. Otherwise, the bear market remains intact, and until the VIX can make a sustained move down, I suspect we will see increased market weakness. I’m eager to see how Barclays new volatility ETN’s will trade, especially in light of the markets lack of confidence in their risk management, reflected by the $3 stock price. New products offer new strategies, and though their entry seems late to the party, the potential for increased diversification is wonderful.

Written by chucklesamadeus

January 25, 2009 at 10:53 am

Historical Indeed

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A new guy moves to the White House every eight years. I think the real news is here; today was the biggest Dow drop on inauguration in history.
Volatility is screaming upwards, and clearly fewer stocks are in bullish formations. The tape still warrants selling the rips, and I suspect we’re in for bigger dips.
Buy write strategies continue to outperform the underlying index, indicating bearish sentiment as the market seeks to hedge long positions.
The momentary bounce in the NAMO was snuffed out by torrential selling. Unless you can move quickly, defense wins this game, so don’t jump on the equity train.
The scariest chart I follow is the NASI. A run to the LEH collapse lows would be a doozy. Like all of the charts in this post, I have no confidence in any bounce until I see an X.
Amid the increasing volatility, fewer stocks are trading above the 50dma, so investors will probably continue to sell their increasingly worthless stocks.

The collapse of RBS and BCS should be making headlines every 2 minutes, but all eyes and ears are tuned to the $170 million party in D.C. A massive liquidation could be in the works as Britain finds itself trapped between a collapsing Pound and hemorrhaging banks. Cash remains king for all but the most nimble traders and disciplined short sellers. Breath deep.

Written by chucklesamadeus

January 20, 2009 at 6:42 pm


Cash Is King

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Market conditions continue to deteriorate as panic spreads around the globe.
My SPX indicator made a new O, signaling increased volatility and fewer stocks in bullish formations. Buyers should step to the sidelines and wait till the current rush to safety subsides.
The buy write index continues to outperform the underlying SPX, reinforcing my bearish sentiments. A break of the upper Bollinger looks to be in the works, so stay defensive.
Equities have entered a new downtrend relative to bonds, so despite talk of a Treasury bubble, there is no appetite for risk.
The Dow Jones World Index is now below the 10sma, and since the global equity markets move in harmony, buyers should beware the primary global trend.
Fewer stocks are trading above their 50dma amidst rising volatility. Any trading on the long side is best left to billion dollar funds that can provide the liquidity being sought.

Another wave of fear is sweeping the markets, and there is no telling when it will stop. The possibility of another massive bank failure looms; Citigroup can’t catch a bid despite a headline deal with Morgan Stanley. SRS and FAZ are the best vehicles for making money intraday, but the incredible volatility requires strict discipline and mental stamina.

Written by chucklesamadeus

January 14, 2009 at 11:59 pm