Smoking Securities

Half Baked High Finance

Archive for the ‘Twitter Ticker’ Category

Twitter Ticker ($FRE)

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FRE090810Freddie Mac is hot on StockTwits as the government sponsored mortgage giant surged over 125% after reporting a profit. As I mentioned here, try to ignore public perception, financial companies related to mortgage securitization are prospering; look at AIG and Fannie Mae.

Breaking to multi-month highs with strong volume, FRE is trading in an uptrend above a slightly rising upper Bollinger, suggesting real buying interest. A move below 1.37 would begin a secondary downtrend, but the primary trend will remain intact so long as Freddie holds above .68.

As time passes, more indications of a strengthening economy can be seen, and the market continues to reward risk takers with new highs and broad based participation. Pullbacks will occur, but dips look like buying opportunities as money continues to come off the sidelines.

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Written by chucklesamadeus

August 10, 2009 at 11:56 pm

Twitter Ticker ($AIG)

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AIG090805American International Group was hot on StockTwits as the insurer opened below $14 and closed at $22, a remarkable daytrade indeed. Whatever voodoo catalyzed the squeeze remains to be seen, though my sources tell me it involved monkey flatulence and Franz Geithner.

Though AIG is in a primary downtrend, the secondary trend is above the 20sma, suggesting a target of $30.8. A move below $18.20 would neutralize  the secondary downtrend, but $11.70 is the last visible support on this timeframe.

Regardless, the financial sector continues to skin every last bear, even the blokes at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are catching a bid. Shorts are fighting the Fed, and judging by the higher lows and higher highs, the printing press is working.

FNM090805FNM had a major breakout today, and it’s in a much better technical position relative to AIG. Trading in an uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger is quite bullish in this market, and it has a price target of 1.09. A trade below .68 would endanger the uptrend, but .49 is the last known support.

These government shell companies are casino stocks for savvy traders with a keen sense of position size and time horizon. There is plenty of money to be made, but bear in mind these stocks can move up 300% and crash 75% a few weeks later.

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 5, 2009 at 7:32 pm

Twitter Ticker ($RIMM)

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RIMM090804Research In Motion is getting attention on StockTwits as many technicians are seeing breakouts. On June 19th RIMM was trading at 72.78 when I posted this, “a break below 70.87 may encourage more selling, but trading above the upper Bolllinger in a rising trend calls for buying the dip.”

Looks like things have played out according to plan, and the prognosis remains the same. So long as RIMM can stay in an uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger, this is a good stock to hold. My only cause for concern is the recent secondary downtrend from June to July, which technically made a lower low.

A breach of 62.28 would jeopardize the bullish thesis, but I’m counting on a break of 86.36, despite the downside price target of 54.89. Fundamentals, macroeconomics and valuations be damned, broad market strength continues to carry everything up, so don’t fight the rising tide.

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 4, 2009 at 10:39 pm

Twitter Ticker ($BAC)

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BAC090803Bank of America is the hottest ticker on StockTwits as the SEC charges the bank with fraud, only to negotiate a $33 million settlement MINUTES later. This may be the fastest resolution to financial impropriety I’ve ever seen, and it makes me wonder: how can I get paid $33 million to ignore $5.8 billion in bonuses?

Nevertheless, corruption and politics aside, BAC continues to perform well, trading in an uptrend just below a rising upper Bollinger. The current price target is 16.11, but be careful if it breaks below 11.49/11.02. I’ve been holding KRE, the KRW Regional Bank ETF, and it remains a strong performer, so there is no reason to fight the trend in the financial sector.

The broad market continues to kick ass, and there are plenty of stocks making new highs with large short positions. GMCR and STEC haven’t done much lately, but PCLN continues to make progress each day. New to my list of interesting stocks, GPI and CAKE, both making new highs with plenty of the stock short.

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 3, 2009 at 12:31 pm

Twitter Ticker ($FSLR)

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FSLR090730First Solar is lighting up StockTwits as the alternative energy giant’s earnings report creates an after hours roller coaster. For a great play by play, catch the breakdown at SMB Capital to see how the trade looked after numbers were announced.

Despite the reversal down after the close, FSLR remains in an uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger, suggesting that this pullback is a buying opportunity. A break below 160.12 would initiate a secondary downtrend, but the primary trend won’t be breached till 139.71.

The broad market is holding up well, so my bias remains towards to upside. That said, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is in a downtrend, so I’m thinking about booking profits and cutting losers before the weekend.

Written by chucklesamadeus

July 30, 2009 at 6:52 pm

Twitter Ticker ($YHOO)

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YHOO090729Yahoo! is buzzing on StockTwits as the Internet information provider announces a deal with Microsoft. The Street seems unimpressed with the “news” as YHOO sells off 11%, breaching the primary uptrend with a secondary downtrend (new O column)

Although it remains above a rising 20sma, it no longer enjoys the advantage of trading beyond an upper Bollinger, implying little buying interest. A break below 14.08 could seal YHOO’s fate as it would indicate a new primary downtrend.

YHOO has to break 18.36 to prove there is upward momentum, but there is no telling when such a move will happen, so I remain neutral on this stock. The broad market continues to digest recent gains, so stay patient, don’t over trade, and take the kids to the beach.

Written by chucklesamadeus

July 29, 2009 at 9:47 am

Twitter Ticker ($MSFT)

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MSFT090723Microsoft chatter is up on StockTwits after the firm reported dismal numbers, sending shares down 7% after hours. Profits have dropped nearly 30% in the last year, suggesting that not all tech firms are created equal (see Intel).

Despite the sell off after the bell, MSFT remains in an uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger, and this pullback may be a good opportunity to load up if the stock can hold 21.56.¬† MSFT may not be the latest and greatest, but I’m sure those geeky Redmondites have something up their sleeve.

MSFT remains the standard in personal computing, and though Apple has massive potential to penetrate this market, Windows ubiquity will keep the company profitable. Bing is catching on, and have you seen Xbox 360 Motion Control? Fighting this 800 lb. gorilla is not for the faint of heart.

Written by chucklesamadeus

July 23, 2009 at 3:09 pm