Smoking Securities

Half Baked High Finance

Twitter Ticker ($AIG)

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AIG090805American International Group was hot on StockTwits as the insurer opened below $14 and closed at $22, a remarkable daytrade indeed. Whatever voodoo catalyzed the squeeze remains to be seen, though my sources tell me it involved monkey flatulence and Franz Geithner.

Though AIG is in a primary downtrend, the secondary trend is above the 20sma, suggesting a target of $30.8. A move below $18.20 would neutralize  the secondary downtrend, but $11.70 is the last visible support on this timeframe.

Regardless, the financial sector continues to skin every last bear, even the blokes at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are catching a bid. Shorts are fighting the Fed, and judging by the higher lows and higher highs, the printing press is working.

FNM090805FNM had a major breakout today, and it’s in a much better technical position relative to AIG. Trading in an uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger is quite bullish in this market, and it has a price target of 1.09. A trade below .68 would endanger the uptrend, but .49 is the last known support.

These government shell companies are casino stocks for savvy traders with a keen sense of position size and time horizon. There is plenty of money to be made, but bear in mind these stocks can move up 300% and crash 75% a few weeks later.


Written by chucklesamadeus

August 5, 2009 at 7:32 pm

S&P 500 Bullidex ($ES_F $SPY $SPX)

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BPSPXVIX090804The S&P 500 Bullidex formed a new high as it rose 4.05% to close at 308, indicating an increase in the number of rising stocks relative to volatility. Although the S&P 500 has yet to trade above the September 2008 level, the Bullidex shows internal strength comparable to May 2008.

With volatility making lows and more stocks on the rise, the chances of buying and holding a stock for a profit are good, so put your money to work. There is no telling how long the trend will last, or where it will end, but I do have a 1140 price target for the s&P 500.

SPY090804After breaking out on July 16th at $94.32, the SPY hasn’t looked back, and remains in a strong uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger. So long as the SPY can stay above $85.70, equities look like a good way to keep purchasing power.

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 4, 2009 at 11:07 pm

Twitter Ticker ($RIMM)

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RIMM090804Research In Motion is getting attention on StockTwits as many technicians are seeing breakouts. On June 19th RIMM was trading at 72.78 when I posted this, “a break below 70.87 may encourage more selling, but trading above the upper Bolllinger in a rising trend calls for buying the dip.”

Looks like things have played out according to plan, and the prognosis remains the same. So long as RIMM can stay in an uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger, this is a good stock to hold. My only cause for concern is the recent secondary downtrend from June to July, which technically made a lower low.

A breach of 62.28 would jeopardize the bullish thesis, but I’m counting on a break of 86.36, despite the downside price target of 54.89. Fundamentals, macroeconomics and valuations be damned, broad market strength continues to carry everything up, so don’t fight the rising tide.

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 4, 2009 at 10:39 pm

New High Short Squeeze ($WFMI)

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WFMI090804I posted a tweet about Whole Foods awhile ago, suggesting it was a strong candidate for technical reasons with a solid brand name to boot. @NoDoji agreed, and today that cat tweeted a call to load up on WFMI before earnings.

Much of WFMI stock has been sold short, so Tuesday’s earnings report may precipitate a covering frenzy. Looking at the after hours market, WFMI has risen $3.40, up over 13%. CHA-CHING!

Technically Whole Foods remains strong, breaking out on July 20th and trading in an uptrend above a rising upper Bollinger. The price target is 32.04, but I treat this number as a guide, and not a profit taking marker.

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 4, 2009 at 6:34 pm

Quote Corner

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The soul is dyed the color of its thoughts. Think only on those things that are in line with your principles and can bear the light of day. The content of your character is your choice. Day by day, what you do is who you become.

-Heraclitus (Greek philosopher, 535-475 BC)

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 4, 2009 at 5:58 pm

Posted in Quote Corner

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Twitter Ticker ($BAC)

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BAC090803Bank of America is the hottest ticker on StockTwits as the SEC charges the bank with fraud, only to negotiate a $33 million settlement MINUTES later. This may be the fastest resolution to financial impropriety I’ve ever seen, and it makes me wonder: how can I get paid $33 million to ignore $5.8 billion in bonuses?

Nevertheless, corruption and politics aside, BAC continues to perform well, trading in an uptrend just below a rising upper Bollinger. The current price target is 16.11, but be careful if it breaks below 11.49/11.02. I’ve been holding KRE, the KRW Regional Bank ETF, and it remains a strong performer, so there is no reason to fight the trend in the financial sector.

The broad market continues to kick ass, and there are plenty of stocks making new highs with large short positions. GMCR and STEC haven’t done much lately, but PCLN continues to make progress each day. New to my list of interesting stocks, GPI and CAKE, both making new highs with plenty of the stock short.

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 3, 2009 at 12:31 pm

Best Safari Ever (If You’re Into Monkey Sex)

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Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about “Best Safari Ever (If You’re Into Monk…“, posted with vodpod

Written by chucklesamadeus

August 2, 2009 at 12:40 am

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