Smoking Securities

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Posts Tagged ‘SPXA50R

S&P 500 Bullidex ($ES_F $SPY $SPX)

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SPXA50RVIX090602The number of stocks trading above the 50dma is rising relative to volatility, which is more evidence of a strengthening uptrend. The odds for successful investment are increasing because the probability of purchasing a strong stock with less risk is growing.

According to this chart, the S&P 500 stands at pre-Lehman failure levels, the green 6 (June) in 09 is on the same level as the red 9 (September) in 08. The SPY trading at 95 still remains below its September 2008 price of 125, so there is ample room to run.

Bears are getting cooked in this heat, so expect further deliciousness despite the economic tragedies emanating from your infobox.

Written by chucklesamadeus

June 2, 2009 at 3:16 pm

S&P 500 Bullidex ($ES_F $SPY $SPX)

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This post is graphic heavy but the message is clear, increased shorting and liquidity are the modi operandi.

Until these charts begin to print X’s, the S&P 500 is not a safe investment.

Volatility is increasing relative to the number of strong performing stocks, reducing the odds of successful investment as market breadth wanes unfavorably. The number of stocks at highs is falling as less stocks rise and fewer trade above the 50dma. Raising cash and shorting leveraged ETFs like FAS is a sound approach in the coming week.

Written by chucklesamadeus

May 24, 2009 at 2:58 pm

Market Glance

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The 5 least correlated positive return ETFs show numerous markets cracking critical support and making new lows.

S&P 500 indicators are bearish across the board.

The market remains fahklempt, buyers beware.  The only positive things I see are emerging markets holding above the November lows, and Treasuries failing to make new highs, despite ominous news from every channel on the planet.

I’ve avoided stress by staying in cash, day trading and acquiring a girlfriend.  Cash remains king, and while there are remarkable intraday opportunities, my focus is elsewhere.  To paraphrase Han Solo, “what good is money if you ain’t around to spend it?”

Written by chucklesamadeus

March 4, 2009 at 1:16 am


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Weekend Review

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Not much has changed, even with Friday’s +6% close.
Even fewer stocks breaking to new highs.
Optimistically, a couple stocks are climbing above the 50dma.
Gold showed good strength, and GDX was up 26%.
But gold is approaching resistance, so stay cautious.

The market is still terribly weak. Gold miners may offer some upside potential, but I suspect it is a better shorting opportunity until the broader market can find some traction. Treasuries are getting ridiculous, but it is too early to get short the long end of the curve. Keep an eye on TBT.

Written by chucklesamadeus

November 22, 2008 at 9:29 pm


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If this market wants to rally, it sure has a strange way of showing it.
Nothing seems to be making any significant ground in the SPX.
At best, there are an increasing amount of stocks above their 50dma.
Maybe a little relative strength in the Utilities.
In a bear market you make more money shorting the strength than buying it.

I’m not seeing a massive rally in the tea leaves, and the strength in the Utilities is probably a red herring. I’d like to use my time machine, but my bitch ex-wife got it during the divorce… I think she’s fucking The Fly. Nevertheless, I predict that we’ll be hearing about credit problems in the utilities industry; they love the debt, they have a high yield, they’re too big to fail and every fucking Mom, Dad, and Shmuck-A-Fuck has been buying equity from their Schicklegrubbing brokers.

On a totally different side note, I don’t know what to think about Twitter. I tried Twitting trades today, and I have little to show for it… time will tell.

Written by chucklesamadeus

November 19, 2008 at 12:45 am


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The Weekend S&P500 P&F

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The S&P500 looks terrible…
Really terrible…
Invest with caution…
Until some X’s get printed on these charts, it’s time to be short short short.

Written by chucklesamadeus

November 15, 2008 at 8:19 pm


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