Smoking Securities

Half Baked High Finance

Posts Tagged ‘SPXHILO


leave a comment »

SPXHILOVIX090611SPXHILO:VIX rose 24% to close at 193, the highest measure since September 2008. This signifies the percentage of stocks making new highs is increasing relative to volatility, a change that promotes the likelihood of successful investment.

So long as the uptrend remains intact, I will continue buying stocks and the weakness in Treasuries continues to confirm the bullish thesis. Increasing yields on risk-free long-term bonds implies market participants have opportunities elsewhere, and that the real danger is holding cash.

Still, there is no reason to rush into the market, the SPXHILO:VIX has much room for improvement.


Written by chucklesamadeus

June 11, 2009 at 3:34 pm

S&P 500 Bullidex ($ES_F $SPY $SPX)

leave a comment »

This post is graphic heavy but the message is clear, increased shorting and liquidity are the modi operandi.

Until these charts begin to print X’s, the S&P 500 is not a safe investment.

Volatility is increasing relative to the number of strong performing stocks, reducing the odds of successful investment as market breadth wanes unfavorably. The number of stocks at highs is falling as less stocks rise and fewer trade above the 50dma. Raising cash and shorting leveraged ETFs like FAS is a sound approach in the coming week.

Written by chucklesamadeus

May 24, 2009 at 2:58 pm

S&P500 10 Day MA Record High Percent Index:Volatility Index $SPXHILO:$VIX ($ES_F $SPY $SPX)

leave a comment »

SPXHILOVIX090514The SPXHILO fell relative to the VIX, indicating fewer stocks are trading at record highs as volatility rises. As the number of stocks making highs wanes, the odds of profitable investment decrease. I’m still selling leveraged ETF’s like FAS/FAZ BGU/BGZ TNA/TZA, but I’ve been taking my long positions off the table.

Written by chucklesamadeus

May 14, 2009 at 5:54 pm

Posted in Finance, SPXHILO, VIX

Tagged with , ,

The S&P 500 Trend

with 7 comments

To be wealthy in life, you gotta recognize iced dice. Today’s odds are dangerous, don’t catch a falling knife.

spxhilovix0903072This is a composite of two derivatives, the Record High Percent (SPXHILO) and Volatility (VIX) Indexes. Together, they describe a market probability, the percentage of stocks at new highs/volatility (SPXHILO:VIX).

Making money is easier when stocks are at new highs, but the risk is greater if the volatility’s in the sky. As stocks make new highs and volatility drops, the SPXHILO:VIX will rise, which is a good thing for stocks. If volatility increases and stocks breakdown, the index will fall, and so will your account.

Unlike line or candlestick charts, the direction of this graph is shown via X and O marks. On the left it begins in 2006, and the subsequent months are denoted in alphanumerics (1-9 and A-C are Jan-Sept and Oct-Dec respectively). A look at the x-axis reveals 2007 begins near center, and 2008 and 2009 are close in the right corner.

The irregular spacing is from the Point and Figure (PnF) method, which reduces noise by ignoring times passage. Non-linear time is the effect it creates, only making marks if values fluctuate. Months can pass without a visible change if the relationship between SPXHILO and VIX stays the same.

Since October of 2008, this indicator has shown little change, it’s as low as it goes and indicates a rigged game. Rigged against players who think they have a chance, of catching a fast knife without cutting their hands.

When stocks are falling and volatility is high, I leave investing to the super rich guys. For me this market is about quick profits and trades, long term buying is an invitation from Hades.

Written by chucklesamadeus

March 8, 2009 at 6:02 pm

Posted in SPXHILO, VIX

Tagged with ,

Market Glance

leave a comment »

The 5 least correlated positive return ETFs show numerous markets cracking critical support and making new lows.

S&P 500 indicators are bearish across the board.

The market remains fahklempt, buyers beware.  The only positive things I see are emerging markets holding above the November lows, and Treasuries failing to make new highs, despite ominous news from every channel on the planet.

I’ve avoided stress by staying in cash, day trading and acquiring a girlfriend.  Cash remains king, and while there are remarkable intraday opportunities, my focus is elsewhere.  To paraphrase Han Solo, “what good is money if you ain’t around to spend it?”

Written by chucklesamadeus

March 4, 2009 at 1:16 am


Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , ,

Weekend Review

leave a comment »

Not much has changed, even with Friday’s +6% close.
Even fewer stocks breaking to new highs.
Optimistically, a couple stocks are climbing above the 50dma.
Gold showed good strength, and GDX was up 26%.
But gold is approaching resistance, so stay cautious.

The market is still terribly weak. Gold miners may offer some upside potential, but I suspect it is a better shorting opportunity until the broader market can find some traction. Treasuries are getting ridiculous, but it is too early to get short the long end of the curve. Keep an eye on TBT.

Written by chucklesamadeus

November 22, 2008 at 9:29 pm


Tagged with , , , , ,

The Weekend S&P500 P&F

leave a comment »

The S&P500 looks terrible…
Really terrible…
Invest with caution…
Until some X’s get printed on these charts, it’s time to be short short short.

Written by chucklesamadeus

November 15, 2008 at 8:19 pm


Tagged with , , ,