Smoking Securities

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S&P 500 Analysis

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The S&P 500 took a beating today, and there is no sign of an end to the selling.

% of Rising S&P 500 Stocks : S&P 500 Volatility Index

% of Rising S&P 500 Stocks : S&P 500 Volatility Index

Volatility continues to increase amidst a declining number of rising stocks.

S&P 500 : 10Y Treasury Bond

S&P 500 : 10Y Treasury Bond

Priced in 10Y T-Bills, the SPX is making a waterfall with no noticeable support to stop it.

There is no reason to call a bottom in the S&P 500, and despite the oversold condition, we have yet to revisit the intensity of October/November. With JPM, WFC, C and BCS headed for the can, who knows how much inventory will be sold to to raise capital in these final hours? Cash is king, and there is no reason to be a hero.

Let the dust settle before kicking into buy mode. This is a massive bear market and significant downside risk remains.


Written by chucklesamadeus

March 5, 2009 at 10:35 pm

Posted in BPSPX, SPX, UST, VIX

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Market Glance

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The 5 least correlated positive return ETFs show numerous markets cracking critical support and making new lows.

S&P 500 indicators are bearish across the board.

The market remains fahklempt, buyers beware.  The only positive things I see are emerging markets holding above the November lows, and Treasuries failing to make new highs, despite ominous news from every channel on the planet.

I’ve avoided stress by staying in cash, day trading and acquiring a girlfriend.  Cash remains king, and while there are remarkable intraday opportunities, my focus is elsewhere.  To paraphrase Han Solo, “what good is money if you ain’t around to spend it?”

Written by chucklesamadeus

March 4, 2009 at 1:16 am


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