Smoking Securities

Half Baked High Finance

Posts Tagged ‘UUP

All Eyes On The Dollar ($UUP)

leave a comment »

UUP090727The USD has fallen over 10% since March, stirring up inflationistas and fueling the bull market. Since the beginning of May, the dollar has traded in a downtrend below a descending lower Bollinger band, forming a descending triple bottom on July 20th.

While it seems unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates due to 9.5% unemployment, a dollar crisis could change the tone of Fed policy. Whether helicopter Ben has the cajones to raise the risk free rate remains to be seen, the political will for such a measure seems unlikely given the present administration.

With a current bearish price objective of 22.36 based the width of the triple bottom, there is no apparent reason to be long UUP unless it can recapture 24.24.

Written by chucklesamadeus

July 27, 2009 at 10:41 pm

Ouch

leave a comment »

After losing ~4% of my equity in various long plays, I called it quits on Monday after the QQQQ’s breached 30.50 and went back into cash, the dollar (UUP) and some shorts. This market felt too heavy to rally, and time is working against it as GS and MS sag lower and lower, potentially sparking another Lehman-esque sell off. Since last November, I’ve seen ~15% of my trading capital disappear, which is very disappointing because my benchmark (a passive hedged portfolio I started in November of 07) has lost 10% in the same period (pathetic). Though I can find solace in beating the SP500, this is hardly a way to make money. Fucktastic… Nevertheless, like a true addicted gambler, I’ll stay in the game and ride the wave until I’m broke.

Written by chucklesamadeus

November 11, 2008 at 4:25 pm

Posted in GS, MS, QQQQ, UUP

Tagged with , , ,